It’s here, it’s finally here! The first day of the 2012 college football season is finally here! Can you smell it? Every meat one can imagine sizzling on a grill, alcoholic beverages being poured like it’s last call, and stadiums packed so tight it makes everyone wish that everyone used Dial. There are some interesting storylines this season just as we have every year. Can Alabama become the first team since the mid-90’s to win a national championship three out of four seasons? Will the SEC win its seventh consecutive title? How will West Virginia, TCU, Missouri, Texas A&M do in their first season in a new major conference? Will Penn State be able to be competitive after the unprecedented amount of change that its program has endured in the offseason? We don’t know the answer to these questions, but the great part is, we’re on the edge of beginning to find out! I am not a fan of preseason rankings and I despise their impact on the BCS and on arguments for or against teams’ “strength of schedule” at season’s end. Nevertheless, I will include them here because I know there are many who take stock in them and enjoy seeing numbers to the left of their favorite team even if it’s not based on what’s happened on the field. So without further ado, let’s dive right in!
1. #9 South Carolina at Vanderbilt: We start right off with a rare treat: an intra-conference and intra-divisional game. Usually in Week 1 we see powerhouses playing powderpuffs as a way of getting in a preseason game or, if not, at least a non-conference match-up that won't hurt chances at a conference title. Steve Spurrier and James Franklin are playing a game that counts right off the bat, and I love it. Even though I respect Vanderbilt’s improvement last season, I don’t really see this being a close game. The Commodores don’t have anyone who can stop the athletic freakshow the Gamecocks have on the defensive line named Jadaveon Clowney and Devin Taylor. I do like that this will get some national exposure for Vandy’s quarterback, Jordan Rodgers, (Aaron’s little brother) but I fear a lot of it will be showing him on his back or scrambling feverishly. Offensively, arguably the best back in the nation returns for the Gamecocks in Marcus Lattimore, who, should he stay healthy, should be a Heisman candidate at year’s end. He can’t get hurt in this game though because his backup is out two to three more weeks with an ankle injury. As long as quarterback Connor Shaw doesn’t throw too many picks against a underrated Commodore secondary, and Lattimore stays healthy, the Gamecocks should win fairly handily.
2. #24 Boise State at #13 Michigan State: To be honest, I don’t understand the voters’ thought process in putting the Broncos in the preseason Top 25. It can only be based on reputation (which seems to be a theme across many of the preseason selections and placements). Boise State returns only six starters and lost the FBS' all-time winningest quarterback, their starting running back, two of the their top three wideouts, and most of their offensive line. Granted, that their success over the years have allowed them to recruit much better players, but this would be one heck of a reloading job. Chris Peterson has proven over and over that he embraces the challenge of facing a team from one of the “big six” conferences and especially when he has a long time to prepare. I just don’t know if ushering in a new era at quarterback with Joe Southwick against a top ten defense is going to allow for those kind traditional magical results. Mr. Southwick, be aware of where defensive end William Gholsten is at all times because he runs like a tailback and hits like a freight train. If this matchup were last year with Kellen Moore and Doug Martin leading the Broncos, I could see myself picking them. However, this year, I think it might get ugly despite the Spartans also replacing a senior quarterback (Kirk Cousins) with a relatively unproven guy. Spartans win easily.
3. Ohio at Penn State: I know this seems like an odd game to pick, but I think it could actually have some importance. This will be the first season opener that won’t be coached by Joe Paterno since the middle of Lyndon Johnson’s term as president. It will be the first time we’ll see players’ names on the back of the Nittany Lions’ jerseys, something I am totally against, but they conveniently forgot to ask for my thoughts on the matter. This is a team that was the subject of a free agent buffet line like we haven’t seen since the SMU scandal. All this change may play in the Bobcats’ favor this Saturday and mark the beginning of a special season for them. If Ohio can beat Penn State to start the season, and I hesitate to call it an upset because of the current state of the PSU program, they have a real shot at an undefeated season. Their only other challenge on their schedule is Marshall in Week 3. The remainder of their schedule has exactly zero teams that had a winning record last season and includes new FBS member Massachusetts. The Bobcats are led by Tyler Tettleton a junior quarterback and son of former Major League Baseball catcher Mickey Tettleton. With Penn State’s depleted offense after being cherry picked by other teams, I think they’re going struggle to put points on the board (actually, they struggled to do that even with all those players last season), and I think the Bobcats edge out the win!
4. #14 Clemson at Auburn: Clemson, in response to their embarrassing loss to West Virginia in the Orange Bowl, hired away Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator (who Bob Stoops swiftly replaced with his brother). Dabo Sweeney did not like the way Geno Smith dissected them for 407 yards and 6 touchdowns and I can’t blame him. Offensively, he has studs all over the field and he knows they can put up points, but WVU just made obvious what the problem was after their 8-0 start last year -- they couldn’t get enough defensive stops. Good news for Auburn is that star wideout Sammy Watkins is out for the first two weeks due to suspension. I also love Auburn’s pick up of All-American fullback, Jay Prosch, from Illinois in the offseason. He will add a lot of stability in the running game (which is minus Michael Dyer) and to the passing game because it allows Phillip Lutzenkirchen (AKA “The Touchdown Maker”) to solely play his natural position at tight end. I expect some formations that include quarterback Keihl Frazier, speedster Ontario McCalebb, and all-around athlete Tre Mason on the field at the same time. Don’t be surprised if you see Mason even throw the ball once or twice. Under Chizik, one thing is for sure, the Tigers’ fight until the clock hits triple zero and I think they will again Saturday night. However, I think Tajh Boyd will be too much for them again this year and Sweeney’s squad starts the year off with a fairly close win.
5. #8 Michigan vs. #2 Alabama (played at Jerry Jones Stadium): As a Buckeyes fan who lives in SEC Country, I don’t think I’ve ever been so conflicted about a game. On one hand, I can’t bring myself to root for my team’s arch-rival who is coached by a man who insists on referring to my favorite team simply as “Ohio”. On the other hand, I don’t see myself rooting for an Alabama victory which will do nothing more than feed the sense of invincibility that Alabama fans, and SEC fans as a whole, seem to carry. As a result, I won’t root for either team and instead be content in the knowledge that no matter who loses I won’t be unhappy about it. Michigan has 16 of 22 starters returning from a team that finished 11-2 last season. Key returners are quarterback Denard Robinson, tailback Fitz Toussaint (Brady Hoke refuses to divulge whether he will start Saturday after being suspended this summer, although rumor is that he will), wideout Roy Roundtree, and middle linebacker Kenny Demens. Alabama returns 10 of 22 starters returning from their national championship run. Key returners are quarterback A.J. McCarron, offensive linemen, Barret Jones, Chance Warmack, and D.J. Fluker, and linebacker Nico Johnson. Nick Saban is traditionally very strong when he has a long time to prepare for a team and given that the Wolverines’ team makeup is virtually the same as last season, that gives him some advantage. On the other hand, I don’t think he’s ever had to gameplan defensively against a quarterback with Robinson’s speed. A very young defense will have to be very disciplined against the only FBS player to ever have run for and passed for 1500 yards in the same season. I expect to Saban start the game in his traditional man-to-man defense and make Robinson prove his accuracy. If that happens, expect Saban to move safety help over to Roundtree’s side and then blitz with either a nickel corner or a linebacker on the opposite side. Expect Hoke to use formations with Robinson, Touissant, and all-around athlete Devin Gardner in the backfield at the same time a few times Saturday night. If Robinson limits or eliminates his interceptions, and can get loose in the open field a few times, this can be a close game and Michigan has a chance to win late. Otherwise, Alabama may actually end up covering the current two-touchdown spread. Alabama wins.
Note: When Zach Mettenberger and Bo Wallace start for LSU and Ole Miss respectively, that will make it so that the last three quarterbacks who won the junior college national championship went on to start in the SEC. The third player being Cam Newton. Another thing they all have in common is that they're all at least 6'5"!
No comments:
Post a Comment