We're finally going to learn something about a few "top" teams this week! Some of them are still playing junior varsity teams this week, but a lot of them are playing challenging opponents and maybe we can start to put some puzzle pieces in place. Alabama and Florida State are pursuing a little bit of history this week in that since the beginning of the BCS era no team has ever won in three consecutive shutouts. Alabama has a legitimate shot at it as they host Florida Atlantic (sorry, Duron Carter, you didn't get your hardship waiver and will be sitting out the year), but FSU has very little chance of shutting out the Clemson Tigers and Tajh Boyd. We'll learn a bit about five teams ranked in the top ten in the Coaches Poll (Oregon, FSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson). Finally! While it will only be Week 4, at least we will have at least a little bit of legitimate information on which to judge these teams. The only unfortunate thing about this is they all play basically at the same time (all starting between 6:30 and 7pm (CST) with only Oregon starting at 9:30 (CST))! Who are we supposed to be following in the afternoon? I'll be watching my Buckeyes against UAB for the 11am (CST) game and South Carolina host Missouri for the 2:30pm (CST) game, I suppose. Let's dive right in!
1. #18 Michigan at #11 Notre Dame: "Shoelaces" has never lost to the Fighting Irish and he's played quite well against them. Brady Hoke has let him play his game these last two weeks, albeit against Air Force and UMass, after taking his strengths away from him in Week 1. Against Alabama, Denard Robinson only had two rushing attempts in the first half (he had 8 in the second half, but the game was out of hand by that time). He's had 30 rushing attempts in the last two games for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns. When he runs the ball, it keeps defenses honest and against Notre Dame, their strength is their defensive ends and linebacker Manti Téo. Having Fitz Touissant in the backfield helps too both as another rushing threat and as a blocker. Last year's game was a back-and-forth battle that went down to the wire and Robinson performed in the clutch. If this year is a heated one like that one, I have a strong feeling Brian Kelly will do the same thing he did in their Week 2 close game against Purdue -- pull Everett Golson and play Tommy Rees. Despite what Kelly says in his press conferences, I don't think Kelly trusts Golson with the ball in his hands when the game is on the line. It's cliché, but this game will come down to turnovers, specifically Denard Robinson turnovers. If he limits them, I think the Wolverines pull the "upset". Michigan was clearly over-ranked early in the year and Notre Dame is right now (shocking that teams are misranked so early, right?). Denard will leave school undefeated against the golden helmets. Michigan wins due to a Denard Robinson touchdown ... pass!
2. Vanderbilt at #5 Georgia: I think this might be a classic trap game for the Bulldogs, with Georgia looking ahead to Tennessee coming to town next week. Vanderbilt's secondary is underrated as South Carolina learned in Week 1. The question is, can the Commodores' offense step up and apply pressure to the Bulldogs' sidelines on the scoreboard? If they score early, and get Georgia to go away from the running game more than they'd like, I think they have a chance. Aaron Murray is one of the SEC's, and the nation's, best quarterbacks, but I don't think he's as effective if he doesn't have the play-action game working. If there's no threat to run, I think Vandy's secondary could have a big day. Georgia has allowed at least 20 points in each of the three games they've played which includes games against Buffalo and Florida Atlantic. The media is portraying the Bulldogs as if they don't miss Isaiah Crowell in the backfield (who was dismissed in the offseason and currently plays for Alabama State), but they do. The emergence of freshman Todd Gurley has everyone excited, especially after his 100-yard kickoff return in Week 1, but Crowell was a workhorse in the running game for Mark Richt. Georgia wins in a pretty close game, but I'm putting them on upset alert because I wouldn't be surprised at all of Vandy stuns them.
3. #15 Kansas State at #6 Oklahoma: Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops' first coaching job was on the staff at Kent State in 1988 and also on that staff was a man by the name of Doug Klein. Doug Klein is Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein's father -- small world, right? Collin Klein is probably one of the most underrated players in the country; I'd venture a guess that a large percentage of college football fans don't know anything about him. Last season he threw for over 1900 yards and 13 touchdowns while rushing for over 1100 yards and 27 touchdowns. That's over 3000 yards and 40 touchdowns worth of offense! He flew under the radar because fellow Big 12 quarterback, Robert Griffin III, was in the spotlight (who, ironically, was just as underrated the prior year). Bill Snyder's return to K-State has brought them back to winning and the improvement is quite noticeable. He inherited a team coming off a 5-7 season and is 23-15 since then with three bowl appearances. However, Bob Stoops has never lost a home opener since becoming the Sooners' head coach in 1999 and is 78-3 at home overall. The Sooners have offensive line woes after several starters got hurt in the offseason, but they are coming off a bye week so Stoops has had a lot of time to prepare for this game. I expect a lot of the "Belldozer package", starring quarterback Blake Bell, mixed into the game plan and not always necessarily in the red zone. Stoops has said that the plays Bell runs were modeled after the running plays Snyder runs with Collin Klein. Neither team has played an opponent that gives any real pertinent information. Oklahoma wins, mainly because the offense KSU runs is not designed to come back when it gets down (too dependent on the run for that), and Landry Jones, Kenny Stills, Damien Williams, Justin Brown, freshman Trey Metoyer, and the aforementioned Bell will put up points.
4. #10 Clemson at #4 Florida State: Neither team has shown much yet to impress me. Clemson struggled against Auburn in a game without star wideout Sammy Watkins (suspension), and an often helmetless Tajh Boyd (new rule craziness). Florida State has played two junior varsity teams and a Wake Forest team that had to come from behind to beat Liberty a junior varsity team in its own right coached by Turner Gill (wow, what happened to his career?) by three points. Watkins played well last week after coming back from suspension, but it was against Furman so it almost doesn't even count. Florida State is a favorite of the media, maybe because Jimbo Fisher is from the Saban coaching tree, and is overrated/overranked every season because of it. It's beyond belief to me that the media isn't pushing EJ Manuel down our throats again as a "Heisman favorite". I'll say the same thing I said last year when that started -- don't book a plane ticket to New York, EJ. EJ will throw an interception, at least one, and it's only a matter of whether Clemson will take advantage of it. As dynamic as Sammy Watkins is, I don't think he'll be the difference in the game. He may catch some touchdowns, but Andre Ellington needs to set the pace in the rushing game. He played well against Auburn, rushing for 228 yards. I don't know if he'll get those kind of video game numbers against the Seminoles, but he'll need to keep that defense honest. Fisher likes to blitz his linebackers, and if Ellington plays well, that may set up play-action perfectly for Boyd to find Watkins and underrated receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Clemson and Tajh Boyd "upset" the media darling Florida State Seminoles!
5. #22 Arizona at #3 Oregon: DeAnthony Thomas -- need I say more? Is there a bigger game changer in the country? I don't think so ... and he doesn't even start! Kenjon Barner has taken over for LaMichael James at running back and Thomas doesn't start as a wide receiver either. Despite all that, Thomas averages 15.3 yards per touch (rushing, receiving, kick returning). Granted, Oregon hasn't played anyone yet -- he averaged 16.0 yards per touch last season! Both of these teams try to get as many plays in the game as possible as they both average over 86 plays a game. Chip Kelly and Rich Rodriguez both run the spread-option offense with Kelly's emphasis a little more on overall team speed than Rodriguez's. Kelly also stresses defense, which has never been an emphasis of "RichRod" who simply coaches to outscore everyone instead of stopping them. I think both teams will put up a pretty good amount of points, but Aflac will make more stops than the Wildcats. It may actually get out of hand as the game progresses, because even "RichRod" won't be ready for how fast Oregon runs plays and makes substitutions on defense. Oregon wins, and fairly handily, but Arizona will put a respectable amount of points on the board.
Note: Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe tonight! Normally, I'd label this a trap game for the Bears as they play against "eighth-ranked" West Virginia next week and they could be tempted to look ahead. However, with the performances of Kolton Browning and the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe the last two weeks, I don't think they'll be overlooked again anytime soon. If ULM makes this a game, I feel bad for the Sun Belt when the Warhawks start their conference schedule!
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