It’s Week 5 and we’re finally getting into the meat of most teams’ schedules. Nearly every team is playing a conference foe this week, but there are a few exceptions. Independent teams like Notre Dame and BYU obviously detract teams from playing conference teams every week. A few teams have byes this week like Oklahoma which has an oddity in their schedule that gave them a bye week prior to playing Kansas State and another one after to stew in the aftermath. A few teams, like LSU, have virtual bye weeks because they’re playing lowly teams like Towson (an FCS team). It’s been a busy week off the field as well. Penn State lost yet another player when quarterback-turned-tight end Paul Jones left the team. With his arm, he’ll get on with a major team next season, I’m sure of it. Kentucky’s starting quarterback suffers from a separated shoulder and still plans to play against South Carolina (against that defensive line, are you serious?). Notre Dame announced it is ending it’s series with Michigan starting in 2015. A four-star receiver, Deon Johnson, who committed to Alabama in 2013, was arrested Wednesday for the second time this month. The first time he was arrested and charged with second-degree rape and second-degree sodomy; Wednesday he was charged with first-degree rape. Wow. Harvey Updyke, the man charged in the poisoning of Auburn’s trees, was arrested in Louisiana and charged with “terrorizing” after an altercation in a Lowe’s store. His bond has been revoked and he will undergo psychiatric testing which will likely result in his trial being postponed (it was supposed to start next week). Pat Dye announced he wouldn’t trade Gene Chizik for “ten Nick Sabans”. Wow, Mr. Dye, wow. Be on the look out for some teams doing special things for Military Appreciation Day. I know North Carolina will add an American flag to the midfield logo and wear American flag helmets and Georgia Southern players are going to wear camo-inspired uniforms. I didn’t do so well picking games last week, but now that we know a little more about these teams, I hope I can do better this week! Let’s dive in!
1. #25 Baylor at #9 West Virginia: This is a battle of two coaches, Art Briles and Dana Holgorson, from the Mike Leach, high-powered offense, coaching tree. It’s West Virginia’s debut in Big 12 conference play. Baylor really hasn’t played any great teams yet but was tested very hard by the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe. West Virginia;s toughest opponent thus far has been Maryland in a game which saw neither team rush for 50 yards. Keep in mind that Maryland squeaked by FCS’s William & Mary in Week 1 7-6 and that W&M is 0-4 right now (they lost to aforementioned Towson). Geno Smith is one of the early Heisman favorites because of his ridiculous numbers thus far. He has 1072 yards passing, 12 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions, and only 22 incompletions! Those kinds of numbers deserve some acknowledgement but I don’t like Heisman talk this early, almost as much as I don’t like early-week polls. The Mountaineers are riding the momentum from their beatdown of Clemson in their bowl game last season and I don’t really see that ride ending this weekend. Given the trouble Baylor had with Louisiana-Monroe at their place, I can’t see them being able to stop wide receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey often enough, if at all. West Virginia wins and it will probably be a high-scoring affair.
2. #14 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State: Buckeyes fans are thrilled Ohio State is 4-0 and the media is already stroking Urban Meyer’s ego, but let’s not get too excited yet folks. This is the first test against a formidable defense the Buckeyes have faced all year. (Cal has a formidable offense and UAB a formidable special teams). The Spartans defense is very athletic and aggressive. This is also the Buckeyes’ first game of the season away from The Horseshoe. In response to their trouble on punts last week against UAB, Meyer has taken all freshman off the punt team (there are still several on the kickoff team). The Spartans will try to contain quarterback Braxton Miller’s run game (he’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry and 110.25 rushing yards per game). Their game plan will be to try to force him to stay in the pocket and beat them with his arm. Arm strength is not a problem for Miller, but timing is sometimes an issue. He’s also been known to throw a few ducks when he doesn’t have his feet set. Michigan State came into the season with a lot of hype and expectation. Its defense is playing well, but it’s offense is struggling and forcing the defense to be on the field far too much. They are 104th in the nation in points scored only breaking double digits once (in the season opener against Boise State). Quarterback Andrew Maxwell, a junior taking over for Kirk Cousins (currently RGIII’s backup for the Redskins), has struggled, completing only 56% of his passes. Ohio State’s secondary is tied for ninth in the nation with 7 interceptions. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State’s junior running back, already has 610 yards rushing. He’s also averaging nearly 30 carries per game. Too much of the load is on him and Maxwell will have to revive the passing game soon or Bell will run out of steam as the season progresses. Given that the Spartans’ weakness is their offense (particularly the passing game) and the Buckeyes’ strength is their defense (particularly pass defense), I think this could end up being a low-scoring and close game. I didn’t think I’d say this when the season started, in fact at the beginning of the season I had this game pegged as a Buckeye loss, but the Buckeyes win a close one in their first road game of the season.
3. Tennessee at #5 Georgia: I wish this game wasn’t being televised at the same time as the TOSU vs. MSU game because I really want to see this match-up. The Volunteers have yet to put four solid quarters together and this week they’re going to need it. They were virtually invisible in the second half against their toughest opponent to date (Florida) and they allowed a one-win team (Akron) to tie them in the first half last week. These two teams are among the most penalized in the country combining for 58 penalties in their first four games! (FYI: Rutgers is the most penalized team as it has 41 in it’s first four games!) Georgia has been difficult to read thus far this season after allowing a combined 43 points to Buffalo and Florida Atlantic but then holding Vanderbilt to just 3 last week. If the Vanderbilt game was any indication, the Bulldogs’ defense may be getting it together and with the likely return of All-American safety Bacarri Rambo this week, Tyler Bray and company may be in trouble. This will be the first real test against a strong passing attack, however, as the only team they’ve played so far that could have tested them, Missouri, was playing with a quarterback with a bum shoulder. Tyler Bray is the real deal and he has weapons at wide receiver. Florida’s answer in the second half was to take away the run and short passes and force Bray to beat them with intermediate and deep routes. He had no trouble finding open receivers, but his receivers were dropping a lot of passes or weren’t able to hang on to the ball after being hit. I suspect Mark Richt will use the same strategy early on and make the receivers prove themselves. If they do, he may play more zone and let Rambo float and just attack the ball. I’m a big Bray fan and I’d love to see him win this game, but until I see them play four solid quarters against someone, there’s nothing that’s going to make me confident enough to pick them. Georgia wins and probably runs for nearly 300 yards with Todd Gurley and company.
4: Ole Miss at #1 Alabama: Alabama hasn’t played against a quarterback that is strong in the passing game yet and likely won’t until Week 8 when they visit Tyler Bray, but this week we get our first look at Bo Wallace. Wallace is the latest quarterback to make the jump from junior college national champion to SEC starting quarterback (Cam Newton and Zach Mettenberger ring a bell?). Wallace, who is 6’5”, 210, is listed as “probable” to start this game due to an undisclosed shoulder injury. Both he and backup Barry Brunetti have played in every game this year with Brunetti being the more mobile of the two. Wallace is known for his strong arm and he has completed 64% of his passes but the Rebels’ have only been tested once this season in a game against Texas. That game was not as close as the 35-point Texas win appeared on the scoreboard as the Longhorns took out most of their first-string defense after half time. I haven’t seen an Ole Miss game yet this year so I don’t know if they have the capability to test Alabama’s yet-to-be tested, young secondary, but if it does, that will be their only chance. Saban will scheme to take away the Rebels’ best player, Jeff Scott, and make Wallace/Brunetti beat him. The Rebels will likely move Scott around and try to get he and Randall Mackey out in space in hopes they can find creases in that much-lauded Tide defense. Texas’ defensive front four is one of the best in the country and they racked up five sacks in their game against the Rebels; the Tide will bring just as much pressure so Wallace will need to get the ball out quickly. Alabama ranks 19th in the nation in sacks with 11; Mississippi has one more with 12, so perhaps they’ll be coming after AJ McCarron as well. While I like the changes first-year Rebels head coach, Hugh Freeze is making, I don’t think they’re quite ready to make this big of a splash in the conference. Saban won’t shut him out, but he may rack up some points on him Alabama wins and I think will have two 100-yard rushers this week in Lacy and Yeldon.
5. #18 Oregon State at Arizona: Oregon State is another team that is difficult to read. They’ve only played two games so far due to a bye week and having their first game against Nicholls State postponed due to Hurricane Isaac. However, the two they played were impressive wins against teams which came into the season with high expectations. First they knocked off Wisconsin, a favorite to win the Big Ten and return to the Rose Bowl, in Week 2 in a game that was not as close as the 10-7 score would suggest. Wisconsin scored their touchdown with 1:31 left in the game. Then they knocked off UCLA, a team some think can compete in the Pac-12 South with USC, behind quarterback Sean Mannion’s 379 yards passing. The thing that stands out to me is that both Wisconsin and UCLA are smashmouth, run-first teams with traditional formations. UCLA is 14th in the nation in rushing and Wisconsin’s running game, while expected to be strong, has been underachieving behind Montee Ball (who I think hasn’t been the same since he was attacked this offseason). So the question is can they defend a spread-option team like Arizona? The Wildcats are coming off an embarrassing 49-0 loss to Oregon, but they did get in the red zone 6 times against that defense; can the Beavers’ defense fare just as well? I don’t know after such a small sample size, but I don’t think Rich Rodriguez wants to lose to the state of Oregon twice in back-to-back weeks. Oregon State isn’t much of a threat in the running game (only rushed for 200 yards so far this season), but the Wildcats defense will have to watch out for Mannion and his receivers Brandon Cooks and Markus Wheaton. I think Arizona’s quarterback, Matt Scott, will be too much though. He’s averaging 302 yards per game and I think the speed of the Rich Rod’s spread-option will overwhelm Oregon State’s defense. Arizona wins and removes Oregon State from the land of the unbeaten, and the polls.
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