1. The precedent was set last year. Last year, a team which did not compete for a conference championship or win its division was chosen to play for the national championship via the current BCS system. A big part of the argument in choosing between two teams to face the lone undefeated team, LSU, was strength of schedule. So many of those arguments were made based on bias towards whichever team the arguer wanted to play in the big game. Let’s look at the strength of schedule of four teams, without including conference championship games or the final games of the season (for those conferences without a conference championship game), because competing for one is no longer necessary to be play for a title. We’re going to use the current records of these teams and their opponents because current records are an actual indication of how good a team is, as opposed to rankings that were influenced by preseason rankings that were based on nothing. Below are four teams (A, B, C, and D) with some breakdowns of their schedule this season. Who would you choose to play for a title against the lone (eligible) undefeated team?
A
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B
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C
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D
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Total Record:
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11-1
|
11-1
|
11-1
|
11-1
|
Conference Record:
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7-1
|
7-1
|
7-1
|
8-1
|
# of bowl-eligible teams beaten:
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7
|
4
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5
|
7
|
# of Teams with winning records beaten:
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8
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3
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4
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7
|
Is one of those winning teams an FCS team?
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Yes
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Yes
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No
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No
|
Current record of the team that beat you:
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11-1
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10-2
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10-2
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10-2
|
Which team, based on facts and not feelings, would you pick to play against Notre Dame for the title? It appears that Team A has the strongest case followed by D, C, and B. (FYI: Notre Dame has beaten 7 bowl-eligible teams, 7 teams with a winning record, and played no FCS teams) I'll let you ponder that for a bit; teams will be identified later in the column.
2. Great choice for Big Ten Coach of the Year. Urban Meyer inspired players to play hard despite having nothing to play for ... this year. Yes, he took a team that was 6-6 last year and led them to an undefeated season. However, that 6-6 wasn't your typical .500 season. It was led, albeit admirably, by a first-year head coach who everyone knew would be a one-year guy. It was marred with suspensions to its five best players and the season started with the thought that freshman quarterback, Braxton Miller, would have to just hold the fort down for the first five games (4 non-conference) until Terrelle Pryor came back. That proved not to be the case. That Buckeyes team had no consistency and its record reflected that. Nevertheless, Meyer led my Buckeyes to a great season and he should be proud of what he accomplished. However, Bill O'Brien was the right choice for this award. O'Brien inspired players to play hard despite having nothing to play for ... period. His team is banned from the postseason for four seasons. His team was subject to free agency that took away 10 players including his starting running back, best wide receiver, and kicker (who was also their punter). All that, and let's not forget that he was following a college football icon in the coaching world. Granted, that burden was probably lessened with the university taking as many actions as possible to make it seem as if Paterno never existed. He took a team that most people believe would win three or four games, especially after starting the season 0-2 with a lost to the Ohio Bobcats) and led them to an 8-4 record. Imagine ... a guy who played for Brown University, coaching the Penn State Nittany Lions to victory through adversity. Wait ... we've seen that once before.
3. The fourth piece of the pie has been sliced. Many many weeks ago, I wrote that there would be four head coaching openings in the SEC. Two of them were easy calls: Arkansas and Kentucky. John L. Smith knew he was a lame duck coach when he was hired as he was only given a 10-month contract. Arkansas hired him because it was too late in the process to seek out anyone properly to fill the role, so they reached out to a former Arkansas assistant coach who had just taken a job to coach at Weber State (an FCS school). Kentucky hasn't been good in quite some time and even given Joker Phillips' background with the Wildcats, four-year starter and longtime assistant coach, being a perennial "joke" of the SEC wasn't going to cut it much longer. Derek Dooley started the season with the pressure to perform after two losing seasons the last of which only included one conference win. He hired Sal Sunseri from the Alabama defensive staff (linebackers coach) to be the defensive coordinator in the hopes that his high-octane offense wouldn't constantly be in the position of having to win shootouts. That didn't help any as the Volunteers defense allowed nearly 36 points per game. Dooley went winless in the conference this season and that is something that won't be tolerated in the SEC (Tennessee ended up getting a conference win to finish the season, after Dooley's dismissal, against the aforementioned lowly Wildcats). Additionally, 3 of his 4 non-conference wins this season include a 1-win FCS team, a 1-win MAC team, and a last possession win against a 5-win Sun Belt team -- not exactly selling points. Sunday, the final piece was cut -- Gene Chizik. I've not studied the entire history of championship-winning coaches (which would be difficult anyway given how many entities handed them out over the years), but this has to be the fastest a coach who has a national championship on his resumé to be forced to leave the program. I was clear when they hired Chizik that it was a poor choice given his 5-19 record at Iowa State, but for those who thought he deserved one more year, I'd like to know what Chizik can point to that demonstrates he deserved it. His 19-19 (7-17 in the SEC) record in years that don't involve one-and-done, junior college transfers Cam Newton and Nick Fairley? Chizik was a great defensive coordinator for Auburn in 2004 and Texas 2005, but being a strong coordinator doesn't always transfer to being a great head coach. Yes, Auburn won a national championship while he was head coach, but was it because of him or despite him? If it were me though, I'd have fired Athletic Director Jay Jacobs as well; how can they be sure he won't make the same mistake?
4. More realignment and there will be more to come. Last week we discussed the Maryland and Rutgers defection to the Big Ten from the ACC and Big East respectively. That was the beginning of what I think will be another major series of transfers. Tulane and East Carolina has announced that they will join the Big East in 2014; Tulane will move all sports and East Carolina will be a football-only member. Tulane is an interesting program, having been a member of four conferences (not counting two stretches as an independent), before this upcoming move. The Green Wave were a member of the SEC for 34 years, for example, and were SEC Champions three times. Rich Rodriguez, known best for his explosion at West Virginia and his implosion at Michigan, first became a watch-list name in the coaching world as an offensive coordinator at Tulane. East Carolina was where Pat Dye started his head coaching career. He went from being an assistant coach at Alabama, to a five-year stint with the ECU Pirates, to a one-year stay at Wyoming, and then onto his legendary 11-year tenure at Auburn during which he won SEC Coach of the Year three times. In my view, the Big East needs to change its name to the Manifest Destiny Conference as it is seemingly determined to reach as far across the nation as it can. In the 2014 season, as it stands now, the conference will have teams in Idaho, California, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, Connecticut, and Ohio. Not a bad thing if the conference is pursuing electoral votes, right? It has a team in Kentucky as well, but rumor has it the ACC will snatch Louisville up this week. Keep in mind that the Big East also has 7 non-football schools! I expect that at some point the ACC will also take Cincinnati and Connecticut, but are in no hurry to do so because they know they aren't going anywhere and they have all the leverage especially due to the strength of the ACC as a basketball league. Who will the Big East pursue if that happens? I think they'd only pursue one school because right now Navy is scheduled to join as a football-only school in 2015 -- maybe one of the top FCS schools like Appalachian State or North Dakota State. We'll see.
5. Coaches that will get some attention by schools with new-found vacancies: There are some candidates that will be on wish lists across the country and I thought I’d mention a few of them. Willie Taggart, currently the head coach at Western Kentucky, will be high on lists due to his having played for Jack Harbaugh and coached under Jim Harbaugh and his turning the Hilltoppers program around. I had him pegged as the next head coach for Kentucky, but obviously that won’t happen now. I still think he’ll get looked at. Charlie Strong will be on the top of a lot of lists. He was defensive coordinator under Urban Meyer during both of his national championships at Florida and has done a great job at Louisville in his first head coaching stint. I expect Arkansas and Tennessee to give him a call, however, I think if Louisville does indeed end up moving to the ACC that he may decide to stay put. Gus Malzahn will get some consideration as well after taking Arkansas State to 8-3 in his head coaching debut and scoring the second-most points Oregon allowed this season. A couple of names that I don’t know a lot of people are talking about are Al Golden and Mike Riley. Golden inherited a Miami team that came under NCAA scrutiny just after he was hired and is in store for some very strong NCAA sanctions for the Nevin Shapiro fiasco. His squad has performed well enough to earn a bowl berth both seasons, but has self-imposed postseason bans both years. That combined with his turning Temple from a 1-win team to a 8 and 9-win squad will make him a desirable candidate. A team that is not under NCAA scrutiny right now, I would think, should be able to lure him away. Mike Riley, has built Oregon State into a contender in the Pac-12 and I don’t know if anyone saw that coming. I think he has two big selling points both for potential employers and future recruits: 1. He has NFL coaching experience 2. He played under Paul “Bear” Bryant at Alabama. If I’m Arkansas, Tennessee, or Auburn I’d probably give this guy a call. Finally, I strongly believe Bobby Petrino will coach in 2013 and it will be for a major program. Some people have a problem with his adultery and his lying to his AD about it, but the bottom line he wins everywhere he goes. We can pretend that it’s more important to be an idol as a coach, but the truth is that we, as fans, want wins. Athletic Directors Conference Commissioners want wins because as much as they like to refer to these players as student-athletes to imply that they’re students first, in reality they’re employees without a check. It’s all about the dollars and it’s not as if Petrino ever cheated on the field … he cheated on his wife.
Team Identifications: Team A is Florida, Team B is Georgia, Team C is Alabama, and Team D is Oregon.
Quote of the Week: When the fact that Florida will likely jump the loser of the SEC Championship game and play in a BCS bowl (likely the Sugar Bowl since the winner will likely play in the National Championship game), was brought up, Nick Saban responded with, "It’s not really a great scenario. You play your way into the (SEC) championship game, which means you’re the best team in your division… It doesn’t seem quite right, but it is what it is. I don’t really know what me commenting about it is going to do to change it. But I don’t feel good about it." Does anyone else see the irony here? Saban's squad was allowed to play in the National Championship game without even participating in the SEC Championship game and therefore kept the loser of that game (Georgia) from playing in the Sugar Bowl (although, I think the Sugar Bowl may have invited Arkansas instead) because only two teams per conference can play in a BCS Bowl game. If we look at the facts in the table above, one could make a good argument that Florida deserves a chance to play for a national championship without participating in the SEC Championship game; but it wouldn't be fair if it jumps the loser of that game to play in the Sugar bowl? Nick Saban will be a governor or senator someday. I should be clear here: I do not think Florida will play for a national title. I don't think the human voters would allow it, especially after the fallout from a non-conference title contender doing so last year still being so fresh. However, I think there is a legitimate, and interesting, argument for it. I do think that Florida has a legitimate claim to be the SEC representative at the Sugar Bowl though. I don't see a strong argument against it, but I welcome one.
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