As we enter the home stretch, the fourth quarter of the regular season, things are starting to get really exciting. Six undefeated teams remain and three of them will be tested this week (Alabama, Oregon, and Kansas State) and the other three should have an easy game. Ohio State plays a 2-6 Illinois team and the only thing that will hurt the Buckeyes is their tendency to let their opponents dictate their level of play. Louisville plays a 3-4 Temple team who shouldn't be a problem for Teddy Bridgewater and company. Bill Cosby isn't suiting up at fullback for the Owls this week I don't think, so I don't think they'll be much of a threat on the scoreboard. Notre Dame, is playing what looks like it could be a trap game this week, but it's unclear whether Pittsburgh's starting running back, top receiver, and best corner will play after being charged with assault. The Fighting Irish should be alright regardless though. Michigan could fall to Marqueis Gray and Minnesota this week even if Denard Robinson tries to play with that hurt elbow. Can you believe the Golden Gophers are on the verge of being bowl eligible? They haven't played in one since 2009 and haven't won one since 2004 when they beat Alabama in the Music City Bowl. (I had to throw that in for all of my friends who are Alabama fans ha-ha). Let's dive into a few of this weekend's game!
#16 Texas A&M at #15 Mississippi State: Johnny Football pulled out the PlayStation controller last week against Auburn with his 350 total yards and 5 touchdowns in not much more than a half of play. However, it’s a big adjustment this week going from playing against the team ranked 81st in the nation in points allowed to the team ranked 15th in that category. Additionally, the timing could potentially be bad for the Aggies. They play Mississippi State a week after being trounced by Alabama and will face an angry and re-awakened Bulldogs team. Combine that with A&M having to fight the urge to look ahead to Week 11 when they host the Crimson Tide. A&M has shown that it can play with the SEC elite thus far this season losing to Florida and LSU by a combined 8 points and having a double-digit lead in both games. Not bad for a team in its first year in the “invincible” SEC being led by a redshirt freshman right? Can Mississippi State’s 47th-ranked rush defense contain Manziel, the SEC’s leading rusher? LSU has been the only team that has had success in doing that (27 yards, 0 TDs) and the difference in that game was when LSU overcame A&M’s 12-0 lead, Manziel tried to make too many things happen in the passing game by forcing throws (two of the interceptions he threw were thrown across his body). He definitely can’t make that mistake against State’s secondary with two future All-Americans back there; even Mr. No-Interceptions nearly threw one last week. As long as the Johnny Football and the Aggies don’t fall into the trap of looking ahead to their match-up with Mr. No-Interceptions and the Crimson Tide they should be okay and move into 3rd in the SEC West. Aggies win!
#4 Oregon at #17 USC: At the beginning of the season this looked like it was going to have some serious implications for the national championship game ... and still does. The difference now, though, is that it only does so for Oregon rather than for both teams as most of us thought then. USC has almost no chance at a national title shot now unless some major things happen. If they win this game, beat Notre Dame, and then beat Oregon again in the Pac-12 Championship ... and Alabama and Kansas State each lose they might have a shot. On the other hand, Oregon's schedule, which is being criticized as being soft, is backloaded and it starts this week. If they keep winning, they'll play for the title, because the human voters aren't going to move them from the number 2 spot without being given a good reason. USC is averaging 35 points a game and if we just look at Oregon's offense, which is easy to do, then seeing that they are first in the country averaging 53.4 tells us that Oregon will simply outscore them. If we do that, though, we're not giving Oregon the credit they deserve. Oregon's defense, which hasn't played a whole game yet this season (and usually doesn't play a complete third quarter) is only allowing 19.4 points a game. Also, think about this: They shut out an Arizona team that was in the red zone six times against them and that averages 39 points a game despite that shutout. Oh ... and Arizona just beat USC. I don't expect Chip Kelly to show everything he has tomorrow because he knows he'll likely have to play USC again for the Pac-12 Championship. I'm actually a little excited about this game because we might actually get to see the Ducks starters play all four quarters! Oregon wins by double digits! Aflac!
#1 Alabama at #5 LSU: This is nowhere near the Game of the Century (but then, I didn't think either of the games last year were either), but it is important. If LSU wins it begs the question: will a one-loss SEC team play for a title even if there are two undefeated teams left ... if not, should they? I don't think they should, but I won't go so far as to say they won't after the debacle last year. With human polls carrying two thirds of the BCS weight, anything can happen. Some are worried about what will happen if there are four undefeated teams but let's not worry about that because it's not likely to happen. I could be trite and say that this game will come down to turnovers, but I won't. I'm going to point to third down. LSU has been absolutely horrible on third down converting only 38% of the time; they were a mere 2 of 16 against Texas A&M! If you combine that with the fact that Alabama, defensively, is only allowing opponents to convert 26% on third down then we can see that it might be a long day for the Tigers. LSU is coming off a bye week and if I were Les Miles, I would have spent the last two weeks inputting a no-huddle offense. Alabama struggled against it, to Nick Saban's own admission (in fact, he said that the NCAA shouldn't allow it "due to safety concerns"), and why not give him something he's not expecting from the Tigers? Ole Miss did better on third down against Alabama than any of their other opponents converting nearly half of them (8 of 17) and that's because the no-huddle doesn't allow Saban to make the substitutions he wants to make. It doesn't allow linebackers to make the adjustments that they have to make in Saban's defense. Zach Mettenberger has overthrown his receivers a ridiculous amount this year, why not give him less time to think about it and just play? I don’t think Miles will do it though. Both of these teams have been good on 4th down conversions (LSU is 100% and Alabama is 71%) and I expect both teams to go for it on fourth down a couple of times this week. Watch out for a fake field goal from Saban this week (remember, McCarron is the holder). Let’s also keep in mind that LSU is averaging 8.5 penalties a game (65 yards a game) while Alabama averages nearly half that; you can’t give Alabama free yards on either side of the ball. LSU is tough to beat at home and nearly impossible to beat at home at night, but LSU beat the Tide at their place last year and I know Saban is dying to do the same. Alabama wins by a little more than a touchdown ... maybe 9 points.
#24 Oklahoma State at #2 Kansas State: These are the top two scoring teams in the Big 12 (Kansas State averaging 44.4 points per game and OK State averaging 44.3 points per game). If Oklahoma State is going to win this game they're going to have to do two things: get a lead early and protect the ball. Kansas State is not built to play from behind; it's built to eat clock with the running games of Collin Klein and John Hubert. The biggest thing that separates these two teams is turnover margin. Kansas State has a +16 turnover margin while the Cowboys have on sitting at -4. Additionally, the Wildcats don't commit a lot of penalties (29.1 yards per game) and the Cowboys are known to give away free yards (62.6 yards per game). The bottom line is there's a reason why the stadium in Manhattan is named for Bill Snyder. His teams don't beat themselves, so if a team is going to bring them down, they're going to have to take the win. It's not going to be handed to them. They eat the clock, they protect the ball, and they don't commit a lot of penalties. Where they are weak, however, is in passing defense. They're allowing 240 yards per game (73rd in the nation) and that is where the Cowboys flourish averaging 347 yards per game (6th in the nation). It's there that I think the Cowboys will attack early hoping to build a lead and force the Wildcats to come out of their comfort zone. They want to make Collin Klein a passer where admittedly he is much improved over last year, but he is still not strong. After they do that, the Cowboys just need to avoid turning the ball over and they will hand K-State their first loss of the season. Upset! Cowboys win and win by double digits!
#23 Texas at #18 Texas Tech: If I'm a Longhorn, or a Longhorn fan, I'm disgusted with the performance last week against a putrid Kansas Jayhawks team, after all they're 1-7 for a reason. Texas is 6-2, but it has to be one of the most frustrating 2-loss seasons Mack Brown and Longhorn Nation can remember. It looked like David Ash had established himself as the starter and then throws for a mere 63 yards and 2 picks against the 92nd ranked passing defense in the nation and gets replaced by a guy who throws 68 yards (on just 7 attempts) and a touchdown to rally a win against the Jayhawks. Now the media is building up that there's a quarterback controversy. If I'm Mack Brown, I use all of that frustration and anger to pump up my team this week to go against an overranked Texas Tech team. If I'm Mack Brown, I'm starting Johnathon Gray and running he and Joe Bergeron until they're both worn out. Texas Tech is allowing 122 yards rushing yards per game and I'd exploit that as much as I can. I'd come out and pound it on first and second down to start the game until Tech commits too many players in the box, then I'd hit them with play action passes to Jaxon Shipley running slants. I wouldn't let the media dictate my game plan and goad me into making David Ash prove anything by throwing it 40 times. The problem, though, is that Texas' defense has been horrid against the pass allowing 230 yards per game and Tech's Seth Doege is 7th in the nation averaging 318 yards passing per game! Additionally, he has thrown more touchdowns than anyone else in the nation with 30 (8 interceptions). All that points to the need to keep him off the field and eat clock. The Longhorn offense might be their best pass defense on Saturday. If this becomes a shootout type of game, I don't know how Ash will react if he throws a pick. Will he be looking over his shoulder to see if McCoy is warming up? Run the ball, Texas, and run it a lot to keep Doege off the field, that's what I'd do. However, I fear Mack Brown will let Tech dictate tempo and fall into the temptation to play a shootout. Texas Tech wins a close one and the media will heat up Brown's seat.
Interesting Nugget: I noticed a little something that may only be interesting to me when looking at the Auburn/New Mexico State game. Wyoming is 1-7 whose only win was against Idaho. Idaho is 1-7 whose only win was against New Mexico State. New Mexico State is 1-7 and now will travel to play against Auburn who is ... you guessed it: 1-7.
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