This week’s games have a lot going on that may not be immediately evident just by a quick glance at the schedule. Four teams play their last regular season game this week, for example. For three of them (Akron, Western Michigan, and California), it will be their last game altogether because they won’t be playing in any bowls. Toledo played on Wednesday (a loss to Northern Ilinois in which the Huskies’ quarterback, Jordan Lynch, threw for nearly 300 yards … in the third quarter!), so they’ll be sitting for quite some time before their bowl game. Five teams in the top ten (BCS rankings) play FCS schools this week; it’s part of a quirky scheduling habit of the SEC that I’ve never really understood in which they schedule a powderpuff team late in the season rather than early on. Auburn and Kentucky each play FCS schools too. All of these FCS schools have winning records at least, except for Western Carolina which is 1-9. Four other teams in the top ten play teams with either an even record or a losing one. That leaves only Oregon playing a game that should be compelling. The quarterback from BYU, Jordan Wynn, who “retired” earlier this season due to yet another injury to his throwing shoulder, found work this week as Hawaii’s quarterbacks coach. That’s pretty impressive and he couldn’t learn under a better offensive mind than Norm Chow. For most teams, this week marks the beginning of their last two weeks (a few teams have three more games) of the regular season, and the home stretch can be critical. Some matchups may appear insignificant but can actually significantly affect a team’s direction. Some teams are fighting for bowl eligibility. For example, Ole Miss has been sitting at 5 wins since October 27th and face LSU and Mississippi State to close out their season. Some teams are striving to make a case for a BCS at-large bid as well.
Alright, let’s get into some games!
#18 USC at #17 UCLA (2:05 CST Fox): The Trojans have a pretty unique opportunity starting this week. UCLA is currently a game ahead of them (in the loss column) in the Pac-12 South, so a win here would move them back into first and keep UCLA out of the championship game that they slid into last year only because the Trojans weren't eligible for postseason play. UCLA, feeling a bit bitter because USC listed this game on their home schedule this season (both play within L.A. city limits), announced that it will not allow the USC Trojan to stab midfield with his sword as has been tradition for some time. There are some who are calling for Lane Kiffin to be fired (are they serious?!) but walking away this Saturday with the Victory Bell will hush some of that talk. Next week they host Notre Dame and if they pull that off as well, it'll knock off an unbeaten and shake up possibilities for several teams. Then they'd play Oregon in the conference championship and have yet another opportunity to shake things up! No one's saying the Trojans will pull of such a miracle three-game streak, but if they did there'd be some Lane Kiffin haters that would think about sending him a thank you card because he'd have opened the doors for some other teams to possibly slip into the Crystal Football Bowl. UCLA is coming off a close call win against 2-win Washington State so I’m sure Jim Mora Jr. led a tough week of practice this week while stressing the importance of their upcoming cross-town rivalry game. But if Connor Halliday can throw for 330 yards and 5 touchdowns without the school’s all-time receiving leader against the Bruins, Matt Barkley with stud wide receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods shouldn’t have an issue dissecting that secondary. Matt Barkley has been disappointing this season as a Heisman candidate, but Marqise Lee has emerged nicely as one (but a wide receiver hasn't won it since Desmond Howard in 1991). The rankings and records suggest this game should be close, but I don’t think it will be. If Barkley doesn’t throw the ball to too many Bruins, the Victory Bell will stay with the Trojans. Expect a lot of flags in this game, however. USC is the 8th most penalized team in the nation and UCLA is the most penalized. USC wins and the first drop of parade rain will fall.
N.C. State at #11 Clemson (2:30 CST ABC/ESPN2): This doesn't look like a significant game, right? I disagree, I consider it to be fairly significant. Clemson, if they can win this and beat South Carolina next week, will have a strong case for a BCS at-large bid. If they get it, I have the Fiesta Bowl inviting them to play the SEC Champion. Let's also remember that N.C. State is the team that knocked off Florida State in Week 6. Clemson has been rolling over opponents since the Seminoles pulled off their comeback win in Week 4. Tajh Boyd is looking like he's back to last year's form and its just in time to make this push. The Wolfpack has been all over the map this season. They had to comeback to squeak out a three-point win against Connecticut. They upset Florida State by a point, but a week later squeaked out a mere two-point win against Maryland (a team that nearly lost to William & Mary to start the season!). Two weeks ago they lost by 27 points to a team which had two wins at the time (Virginia). North Carolina State is 110th in the nation in rushing, so they can't play the clock-eating strategy to keep Boyd and company off the field. Additionally, they don't have the speed defensively to keep up with wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins. Clemson wins!
Ohio State at Wisconsin (2:30 CST ABC/ESPN2): This game is definitely one that could potentially jeopardize the Buckeyes' undefeated status. This Buckeyes team has far surpassed any reasonable expectations for number of wins this season. That being said, it also might be the worst tackling 10-0 team I've ever seen. They also have a habit of playing down or up to the skill level of their opponent which is something that seems should bite them sooner or later. They struggled against California (currently has 3 wins) yet they put up 63 against Nebraska (currently 14th in the nation). You probably have that confused look on your face right now too, don't you? It makes no sense. Two weeks after the explosion against Nebraska, they needed a fantastic drive as time expired and a game-tying two-point conversion just to get to overtime against Purdue (a team that Minnesota beat by 16!). Equally confusing is this Wisconsin team though. The Badgers nearly lost to Northern Iowa and Utah State. In fairness, Montee Ball started the season seemingly still rattled from the assault he was victim to just before the season began. They've also had quarterback issues; Maryland transfer Danny O'Brien hasn't worked out. Freshman Joel Stave hasn't been particularly impressive either, but he's done a decent job of avoiding interceptions. I expect Urban Meyer to play a little more man-to-man (finally!) on the outside because corners Travis Howard and Bradley Roby certainly have that capability and playing zone against a "game manager" gives him unnecessary space to throw the ball. Ball has rushed for at least 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 games so the return of Buckeyes linebacker Etienne Sabino from injury couldn't have come at a better time. What gives me pause about picking the Buckeyes are two factors: 1. Playing at Camp Randall Stadium because it's a tough venue to play, but at least it's not at night. 2. Tackling issues the Buckeyes have had which makes me weary of Montee Ball or James White busting some long runs. However, this team's will to win (Exhibit A: the Purdue comeback led by backup quarterback Kenny Guiton) and Braxton Miller's Playstation-like capabilities pull me the other way. Wisconsin is not built to comeback and score a lot of points; it's a power run team with a quarterback who doesn't take a lot chances downfield. So the Buckeyes need to do something they've struggled with all season: have a strong first quarter. I've picked against my Buckeyes this season and was thrilled that I was wrong. I'm not doing it this week. Buckeyes win and keep the streak alive!
#13 Stanford at #2 Oregon (7:00 CST ABC): Comparing performances against common opponents isn't really going to tell us a lot. Stanford lost to Washington and Oregon beat them by 31. Oregon beat Arizona 49-0 and a week later Stanford needed overtime to beat the Wildcats 54-48 (both hosted Arizona, by the way). Given Stanford's run-to-eat-clock style of play a couple of things are significant, however. First is injuries to the Ducks defense. Their safety is out for the season and they have three defensive lineman who are injured and it is unclear whether they'll be able to play this week. If they can't go, it could be a long day defensively for Oregon because the Cardinal love to run it up the gut and grind out yards. Oregon's offense may actually be its best defense this week because if they can put up points early (which hasn't been a problem thus far), Stanford will be forced to try to match them through the air with freshman Keith Hogan (Josh Nunes lost the starting job a couple of weeks ago). Hogan is a better passer than Nunes was, but Oregon State picked him off twice last week, so I don't know of coach David Shaw is ready to bet the house on his arm just yet. Several teams (and their fans) would love to see Hogan bring Chip Kelly and the Ducks down, the burden of which certainly can't be an advantage. Second is that Oregon's leading rusher, Kenjon Barner, injured his hand last week against California. (GREAT story on Barner here) I've read that he's expected to give it ago, but Byron Marshall stepped in for him nicely and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat -- but it was against California. The bright side for them is that they have this kid, I'm sure you've heard of him, named DeAnthony Thomas who can take over carries if need be. Some experts have Oregon on upset alert this week because of the defensive injuries, particularly the linemen, but I don't think Keith Hogan is ready to have the game put on his shoulders, which is what I expect will need to happen if, and when, Oregon scores a couple of touchdowns early (they have scored 13 touchdowns this season in less than a minute on offense). Ducks win! Aflac!
#1 Kansas State at Baylor (7:00 CST ESPN): The Bears have a brutal finish to the season: Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. The bright side is that they're at home for all of them. They've only lost once at home this season, but they haven't really played anyone of note (SMU, Sam Houston State, and Kansas) there outside of the team to which they lost either (TCU). Some analysts have Kansas State on upset alert this week too, but I think that's more like wishful thinking. Yes, Baylor can put up a lot of yards and a lot of points. However, I don't expect them to have very many possessions given that the Wildcats are 16th in the nation in time of possession averaging a little over 32 minutes a game (P.S. Some of the teams averaging more would probably surprise you, like ... North Texas). Bill Snyder's team just doesn't avail too many opportunities to the opposition. It leads the nation in turnover margin (+21) and penalties accrued (3.2 per game). The Wildcats are 10th in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage (50.44%) and 16th in red zone conversion percentage (89.29%). Let's remember too, that Baylor struggled mightily against Louisiana-Monroe and squeaked out a 5-point win. What some people don't often know about Kansas State is that despite their grind-it-on-the-ground style and reputation they are 8th in the nation in points scored (42.2 points a game)! I enjoy watching the Baylor Bears and I like what Art Briles is doing down in Waco, but I don't see them going to a bowl this season. They sitting at four wins and with the three games it has left, I don't see them winning two of them. Truthfully, I don't see them winning any of them. Kansas State wins and it might be a healthy lead at game's end.
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