Championship Week!

It’s championship week for most teams playing this week.  The few exceptions are the following games:  Pittsburgh/South Florida, Nicholls St./Oregon State, South Alabama/Hawaii, Cincinnati/Connecticut, New Mexico State/Texas State, and all of the Big 12 matchups (in that they don’t have a championship game anymore).  Cincinnati, with a win, can move into a four-way tie for first place in the Big East, however Louisville will win all tiebreakers (they won last night, by the way) because they all involve BCS rankings and they’ll be the highest-ranked of the four.  Oklahoma needs a win to give themselves a chance at the Big 12 title (with a K-State loss) and or a share of the title and ensure an at-large bid into a BCS game (with a K-State win). Should they both win, they’ll each have a share of the Big 12 title, but K-State would be the representative at the Fiesta Bowl by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker.  Texas, even if it were to beat Kansas State, cannot win the Big 12 title due to its 3 conference losses. Pittsburgh and Connecticut are each playing for bowl eligibility as they each currently sit at 5 wins.  The Oregon State/Nicholls St. game is only being played because it was supposed to be the season opener for each team but was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac. Hawaii always plays a 13-game schedule, in fact, Bill O’Brien was considering trying to schedule Hawaii for this week the next three years as a kind de facto bowl game since his squad isn’t eligible for postseason play.  There are some tough games this week so it should be fun to watch!

1. #21 Northern Illinois vs #17 Kent State (6pm CST ESPN2 Friday):  Quarterback Jordan Lynch is having the best season no one is talking about.  He has 2750 yards passing with 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions along with 1611 yards rushing with 16 touchdowns for the Huskies.  Northern Illinois’ only loss is a 1-point game against Iowa (4-8 this season) which was Lynch’s first start and that the Huskies led the whole way until a touchdown run by Hawkeyes running back Damon Bullock with 2:15 left.  First-year head coach Darrell Hazell, who was assistant for my Buckeyes for six years, has the Kent State Golden Flashes in a position which could potentially lead to a spot in a BCS bowl game.  If they win tonight and move into the top 16 they’ll be eligible for one because they’ll be ranked above a conference champion from an AQ conference (Big East); if they jump into the top 14 they’ll automatically go to a BCS bowl.  The Golden Flashes are led by two thousand-yard rushers, that’s right, two!  Dri Archer is averaging 9.7 yards per carry (1337 yards on the season) while Trayion Durham is averaging 4.98 yards per carry (1176 yards on the season).  Kent State’s only loss was a 34-point loss at the hands of, are you ready for this, Kentucky (2-10 this season) in Week 2.  They had a nice 12-point win against Rutgers later in the year though.  I realize it’s trite, but I think the difference in this game will be turnovers because they’re rare for both of these teams as they are both in the top 20 in the nation in turnover margin.  I give the edge to Kent State, however, because they’re tied for the best turnover margin in the nation with a ridiculous +20.  Nick Saban’s alma mater wins and will watch with crossed fingers when the rankings come out Sunday night and if Oklahoma wins (and K-State wins), the Sooners will be hoping Kent State doesn’t take their spot as an BCS at-large who will face Florida at the Sugar Bowl or the winner of the ACC Championship in the Orange Bowl.

2. #16 UCLA at #8 Stanford (7pm CST ESPN2 Fox Friday):  These two teams ended up playing a home-at home series, as they played just last year in Pasadena.  Each of these teams have had a great year that include several big wins but had seemingly inexplicable losses.  The Bruins have wins over Nebraska, USC, and a 56-point blowout over Arizona yet have a 43-17 loss to a California team that only won two other games (Southern Utah and Washington State).  The Cardinal have wins over USC, Oregon State and an overtime win over Oregon yet have a loss to 7-win Washington (who lost their rivalry game last week to lowly Washington State, by the way).  I don’t know how much we can really gather from last week’s game between these two teams because only Stanford had something to play for.  They needed a win to ensure their spot in this game while UCLA was going to be here regardless (even had the Trojans brought Notre Dame down and evened the conference record with UCLA, the Bruins had the head-to-head tiebreaker).  It was almost to the Bruins benefit to lose last week as a win would have all but ensured they’d have met the Oregon Ducks today and I don’t think anyone wants to play the Ducks when a trip to the Rose Bowl is on the line.  So I don’t think Jim Mora, Jr. really played his hand as he normally would have.  Mora will expect a big game from senior running back Johnathon Franklin (1506 yards rushing this season) as he had a mediocre outing last week (only the third time this season he averaged less than 4 yards a carry).  On the other hand, ask Notre Dame how good Cardinal running back Stepfan Taylor is as a controversial no touchdown call in overtime left the Fighting Irish’s record unblemished.  I think it will come down to who does a better job of stopping the run tonight because both quarterbacks have been playing well and really aren’t prone to a lot of turnovers (they’ve combined for just five picks since Kevin Hogan took over for Stanford on 11/3).  Given that Stanford lead the nation in least amount of rushing yards allowed (71.42 yards per game) and the Bruins allow double that amount, I think the edge goes to Stanford.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Mora dials up a more aggressive air attack this week, planning to throw it more than 40 times, to try to expose the Cardinal secondary, but I don’t think he’ll get that opportunity as Taylor and the Cardinal will eat up a lot of clock (they average nearly 32 minutes a game in time of possession). Stanford to the Rose Bowl.

3. #2 Alabama vs. #3 Georgia (3pm CST CBS):  This may be one of the toughest games I’ve picked all season just because these teams are pretty similar.  Both teams have a two-player rushing attack that has gained over 1800 yards.  Georgia’s freshman tandem of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall (AKA “Gershall) have rushed for 1858 yards while Alabama’s Thunder and Lightning tandem of Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon have rushed for 1847 yards.  Both quarterbacks are traditional drop-back style players as they each average less than 5 rush attempts a game.  Both defenses put a lot of responsibility on their corners in both the passing and running game.  Where they differ mainly is Alabama’s secondary is fairly young with the exception of senior Robert Lester (who, by the way, seems like he’s been there forever doesn’t he?) while Georgia’s secondary is made up almost entirely of seniors with the exception of two-way player Malcolm Mitchell (who also leads the Bulldogs in receptions).  This Alabama defense is not your typical Nick Saban squad because there’s one seemingly glaring missing piece -- a star linebacker.  C.J. Mosley, Trey DePriest, and Nico Johnson are all good players, but they’re not in the mold of a Rolando McClain or Dont'a Hightower.  Georgia’s Jarvis Jones seems like that kind of guy to me, however.  He has 19.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks.  If he, Kwame Geathers, and Garrison Smith can put some pressure on A.J. McCarron it could spell trouble.  Especially given that one of his deep threats, Kenny Bell, has been sidelined.  I’d give safety help over the top on Amari Cooper’s side of the field all night.  Saban is killing freshman wide receiver Chris Black’s redshirt to play in this game.  He’s been out with a shoulder injury all season but has been practicing for the last three weeks.  Black was a star recruit alongside Cooper last offseason and is said to have great speed and leaping ability.  I doubt he’ll start, because I expect Kevin Norwood, who I think people have kind of forgotten about, to make a great contribution this week since I expect Cooper to get a lot of attention.  Don’t be surprised either if both tight ends for these teams make key plays.  Arthur Lynch (UGA) and Michael Williams (UA) combine for merely 37 catches, but I think that’s exactly why offensive coordinators, Bobo and Nussmeier, will include them somewhere in the game plan.  I think this game comes down to not just turnovers, but who makes the first turnover.  I think the first team to get a takeaway will likely win this game because I think that’s what will spark the lead.  Alabama has committed 13 turnovers this season and Georgia has 16 and I think that’s exactly the margin of victory, 3,  Alabama walks away with the chance to compete in its third national championship game in four years.

4. #13 Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (7pm CST ESPN):  You’ll notice Georgia Tech is unranked and that is because they are 6-6.  The only reason they are playing in this game is because both North Carolina and Miami are ineligible for postseason play (Miami self-imposed again this season).  Although, in fairness, neither of them are ranked either.  Georgia Tech has been granted a bowl waiver by the NCAA which will allow them to play in a bowl even if they lose this game and end up with a losing record (much like UCLA last season and the commish of the MAC was upset and I don’t blame him).  An oddity about the Tech is that they are third in the nation in rushing (which is normal for a triple-option team) yet don’t have a player in the top 100 in rushing yards.  They have six players with at least 380 yards rushing!  That’s good news given that Florida State just allowed 5.2 yards per carry and 244 total yards rushing to Florida last week. Also good news for them is that FSU hasn’t faced a triple-option team this season, even within their powderpuff non-conference schedule (Georgia didn’t make that mistake), so the difficulty of replicating the triple-option in practice is an advantage.  What works against the Yellow Jackets, however, is that it probably won’t matter.  FSU has what I think is the second-best defensive end tandem in the country (behind JaDeveon Clowney and Devin Taylor) with Bjoern Werner and Cornellius “Tank” Carradine who combine for 31 tackles for loss.  I think E.J. Manuel is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the country and the only chance Georgia Tech has of winning this game is if Manuel throws a pick or two early that lead to points and then kill clock with the triple-option.  He’s thrown 5 in the last three games (3 last week) but Tech has only intercepted 12 balls all season and 4 of them were in two games (2 against Virginia and 2 against Clemson).  I know the Orange Bowl is hoping there isn’t an upset in this game because they’d hate to have to promote a matchup that includes a team with 6 losses.  I don’t think they’ll have to worry, (the Rose bowl might be tense, though), because this should be a Seminoles blowout.  Florida State wins!

5. #12 Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (7:17pm CST Fox):  Eerily similar to the FSU/GT game, Wisconsin would not be playing in this game if it weren’t for two teams above it, Ohio State and Penn State, being ineligible for postseason play.  Wisconsin won the inaugural Big Ten Championship game last year, so it has to feel odd to them to have to back in to earn a spot this season.  Wisconsin will have a chance to pull in its second consecutive Grange-Griffin Most Valuable Player Trophy after Russell Wilson won it last year.  These two teams have played already this season with Nebraska winning by three after coming back from a 20-3 deficit.  Quarterback Taylor Martinez took the team on his back in that game with 288 total yards and 3 touchdowns.  Montee Ball did most of the work for the Badgers carrying it 32 times for 90 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The Badgers have not looked great this year but they are coming off back-to-back overtime losses to Ohio State and Penn State and how they were able to stay in those games was keeping the ball away from the opposing teams.  They kept the ball for an amazing 37 minutes, with 1 turnover and only three penalties against the Buckeyes and for 32 minutes, with 1 turnover and only four turnovers against the Nittany Lions.  Montee Ball is back to his old self having rushed for at least 100 yards in six of his last seven games and at least 190 yards in three of those (sadly, one of those was against my poor-tackling Buckeyes).  Nebraska’s only two losses are six-point to UCLA in Week 2 and a 25-point loss to the Buckeyes, outside of those two games they’ve played pretty well.  Taylor Martinez is quietly having another solid season with over 3300 total yards and 29 touchdowns.  The Huskers are coming off a pretty ugly (we can call it a defensive matchup if we like) in which there 463 total yards for both teams combined!  There 4 turnovers and the teams combined for 9-29 third down conversions.  Believe it or not, I think that is just what the Huskers needed going into this game -- a grind-a-win-out kind of game.  It will be a grind against the big offensive line and running game of Montee Ball, but Wisconsin is on their third quarterback (senior Curt Phillips) so I don’t think the Badgers will be airing it out.  He hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in a game yet.  I think this will be a close game, which will make those at the Rose Bowl a little nervous because they don’t want to have a 5-loss team in their bowl game anymore than the Orange Bowl would want a 6-loss team in theirs.  Wouldn’t it be something if both happened? Neither will happen, however, because Nebraska will squeak out a victory in the fourth quarter.  Nebraska wins!